Dr Mark Schipp on futures thinking – considering tomorrow today

_{Image: staff from the Office of the Chief Veterinary Officer attended a futures training workshop at ANU (image credit DAFF)} 

Our world is constantly evolving – bringing with it both opportunities and challenges. And, while we cannot predict the future, we can influence it. Strategic foresight or ‘futures thinking' tools can be used to support the identification and analysis of emerging issues and trends, and assist in planning and preparedness, including in the veterinary and animal health fields. We can use these tools to consider questions like, what would be the best-case scenario for animal health in Australia in 2040? What would be the worst-case scenario? 

As veterinarians, we are constantly collecting and analysing information, thinking about different possible ‘futures’, and evaluating potential next steps. This may be for a particular clinical case, or for global animal health policies, along with everything in between. Our approach to this is doubtless influenced by what we were taught during veterinary school – taking histories, doing examinations, considering differential diagnoses, and investigating possible courses of action while weighing up the associated risks and benefits. We also draw on past experiences, and much of our thinking becomes intuitive or unconscious.  

However, we also need to take opportunities to challenge our own views and assumptions – as it pays to think differently, and consider new concepts and approaches to doing things. Over the past decade as Australia’s Chief Veterinary Officer, and in my roles before that, I have been privileged to work with many different colleagues and work on a wide variety of projects and issues.  

From debating international animal health standards, to negotiating trade matters while posted overseas as an Agricultural Counsellor in Seoul and Beijing, I’ve been fortunate to be exposed to and learn from many different methods for how problems and issues are considered, approached and actioned. Bringing together a diverse group to briefly workshop a topic can be very powerful. On issues such as the future of veterinary education, antimicrobial resistance and setting a strategic direction for future work I have found this approach to be valuable.  

My experience has also highlighted that animal health and technical matters cannot be considered in isolation. Animal disease occurrence and management, for example, is influenced by a number of issues and drivers. Social, technological, ethical, economic, environmental, political and legal factors can all come into play. This is as true both at a global scale, and for a case presented in private clinical practice. For instance, changing environmental conditions can influence the spread or presence of disease; socioeconomic factors can drive animal management or trade practices, and a combination of these factors may impact how we respond. 

Just like other aspects of our lives, the animal biosecurity landscape also continues to evolve. There is wide recognition that the landscape is increasingly dynamic and complex. We have seen this in recent years with Ehrlichia canis and Japanese encephalitis incursions in Australia; as well as the emergence and spread of livestock diseases like African swine fever and lumpy skin disease in our region; and unprecedented impacts and spread of high pathogenicity avian influenza overseas. This means that scanning for emerging issues and investing in our ‘future-readiness’ is increasingly important.  

Strategic foresight or futures thinking, provides tools to support the early identification of emerging trends, and robust analysis that takes into account uncertainty to identify preferred responses. These methods do not aim to predict the future, but provide a framework to scan for emerging issues and drivers, challenge our thinking, inspire and help create a common vision and ultimately engender action. These tools can also provide a safe space to challenge ideas.   

My office has a history of engaging in foresight and futures thinking to support the identification of emerging threats and opportunities for animal health in Australia. We are not alone in recognising the benefits of these tools. In January 2020, the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) established a dedicated position within its management structure to develop its foresight capability and help ‘future-proof’ the organisation. The World Health Organization similarly established a Global Health Foresight function in 2020  to assist its Members better anticipate and prepare for a changing world. The Food and Agriculture Organization and United Nations Environment Program likewise recognise the role of foresight, and have developed a number of reports.  But, you don’t need to work for a large organisation to use these tools, or realise the benefits.  

Over the past years, my office has participated in a range of foresight and futures thinking activities and training. These have provided good reminders that taking time to analyse trends and drivers, and expand horizons as part of longer-term strategic planning can support informed decision-making and position individuals and organisations well for the future.  Curiosity, open-mindedness, willingness to reflect on and challenge personal biases, and embracing uncertainty and different perspectives, are all a part of futures thinking.   

Regardless of what type of role you may be working in, as veterinarians we all need to be on the lookout for so-called ‘black swans’, ‘grey rhinos’ and ‘white elephants’ – that is, simply, the ‘unknown unknowns’, the ‘known unknowns’ and the ‘known knowns’. To do this, futures thinking tools can be useful, and drawing on different perspectives, experiences and views.  

There are a number of resources available online to find out more about these approaches and tools – including from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, and from overseas, for instance New Zealand. There are also many futures thinking reports available online to stimulate your thinking, for example, from WOAH and United Nations organisations (above).  

I invite you all to think to the future, and consider what we can all do today to support a prosperous future for animal health in Australia and beyond.   

For the latest updates on the work of the Office of the Chief Veterinary Officer, please follow our Twitter channel, and you can also follow me on LinkedIn and the Australian Deputy Chief Veterinary Officer Dr Beth Cookson on LinkedIn.